Solved by a verified expert :Question 1
5 out of 5 points
Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists
in model parameters.
Question 2
5 out of 5 points
A continuous random variable may assume only integer values
within a given interval.
Question 3
5 out of 5 points
An inspector correctly identifies defective products 90% of
the time. For the next 10 products, the probability that he makes fewer than 2
incorrect inspections is 0.736.
Question 4
5 out of 5 points
A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision
nodes, square probability nodes, and branches.
Question 5
5 out of 5 points
Excel can only be used to simulate systems that can be
represented by continuous random variables.
Question 6
5 out of 5 points
Simulation results will always equal analytical results if
30 trials of the simulation have been conducted.
Question 7
5 out of 5 points
Data cannot exhibit both trend and cyclical patterns.
Question 8
5 out of 5 points
Qualitative methods are the least common type of forecasting
method for the long-term strategic planning process.
Question 9
5 out of 5 points
__________ is a measure of dispersion of random variable
values about the expected value.
Question 10
5 out of 5 points
In Bayesian analysis, additional information is used to
alter the __________ probability of the occurrence of an event.
Question 11
5 out of 5 points
The __________ is the maximum amount a decision maker would
pay for additional information.
Question 12
5 out of 5 points
Developing the cumulative probability distribution helps to
determine
Question 13
5 out of 5 points
A seed value is a(n)
Question 14
5 out of 5 points
Random numbers generated by a __________ process instead of
a __________ process are pseudorandom numbers.
Question 15
0 out of 5 points
Consider the following frequency of demand:
If the simulation begins with 0.8102, the simulated value
for demand would be
Question 16
5 out of 5 points
__________ is absolute error as a percentage of demand.
Question 17
0 out of 5 points
Consider the following demand and forecast.
Period
Demand
Forecast
1
7
10
2
12
15
3
18
20
4
22
If MAD = 2, what is the forecast for period 4?
Question 18
5 out of 5 points
__________ is a linear regression model relating demand to
time.
Question 19
5 out of 5 points
__________ is a category of statistical techniques that uses
historical data to predict future behavior.
Question 20
5 out of 5 points
Consider the following graph of sales.
Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the
data?
Question 21
5 out of 5 points
Which of the following possible values of alpha would cause
exponential smoothing to respond the most slowly to sudden changes in forecast
errors?
Question 22
5 out of 5 points
__________ is a measure of the strength of the relationship
between independent and dependent variables.
Question 23
5 out of 5 points
__________ is the difference between the forecast and actual
demand.
Question 24
5 out of 5 points
__________ methods are the most common type of forecasting
method for the long-term strategic planning process.
Question 25
5 out of 5 points
A life insurance company wants to estimate their annual
payouts. Assume that the probability distribution of the lifetimes of the
participants is approximately a normal distribution with a mean of 68 years and
a standard deviation of 4 years. What proportion of the plan recipients would
receive payments beyond age 75? Round
your answer to four places after the decimal.
Question 26
5 out of 5 points
A loaf of bread is normally distributed with a mean of 22 oz
and a standard deviation of 0.5 oz. What is the probability that a loaf is
larger than 21 oz? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.
Question 27
5 out of 5 points
The drying rate in an industrial process is dependent on
many factors and varies according to the following distribution.
Compute the mean drying time. Use two places after the decimal.
Question 28
5 out of 5 points
An online sweepstakes has the following payoffs and
probabilities. Each person is limited to
one entry.
The probability of winning at least $1,000.00 is ________.
Question 29
5 out of 5 points
An investor is considering 4 different opportunities, A, B,
C, or D. The payoff for each opportunity
will depend on the economic conditions, represented in the payoff table below.
Economic Condition
Poor Average Good Excellent
Investment (S1)
(S2) (S3) (S4)
A 50 75 20 30
B 80 15 40 50
C -100 300 -50 10
D 25 25 25 25
If the probabilities of each economic condition are 0.5,
0.1, 0.35, and 0.05 respectively, what is the highest expected payoff?
Question 30
5 out of 5 points
The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether
to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary
with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code. The following payoff
table is given in thousands of dollars (e.g. 50 = $50,000).
If he uses the maximin criterion, how many new workers will
he hire?
Question 31
5 out of 5 points
A normal distribution has a mean of 500 and a standard
deviation of 50. A manager wants to simulate one value from this distribution,
and has drawn the number 1.4 randomly.
What is the simulated value?
Question 32
5 out of 5 points
The following sales data are available for 2003-2008 :
Year
Sales
Forecast
2003
7
9
2004
12
10
2005
14
15
2006
20
22
2007
16
18
2008
25
21
Calculate the absolute value of the average error. Use three
significant digits after the decimal.
Question 33
5 out of 5 points
Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to
most recent) were: 95, 102, 101, 96, 95,
90 and 92. Develop a forecast for today
using a weighted moving average, with weights of .6, .3 and .1, where the
highest weights are applied to the most recent data.
Question 34
5 out of 5 points
Given the following data, compute the MAD for the forecast.
Year Demand Forecast
2001
16
18
2002
20
19
2003
18
24
Question 35
5 out of 5 points
The following data summarizes the historical demand for a
product.
Month
Actual Demand
March
20
April
25
May
40
June
35
July
30
August
45
Use exponential smoothing with ? = .2 and the smoothed forecast for July is 32.
Determine the smoothed forecast for August.
Question 36
5 out of 5 points
Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream
sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:
Compute a 3-period moving average for period 6. Use two
places after the decimal.
Question 37
5 out of 5 points
Consider the following annual sales data for 2001-2008.
Year
Sales
2001
2
2002
4
2003
10
2004
8
2005
14
2006
18
2007
17
2008
20
Calculate the correlation coefficient . Use four significant
digits after the decimal.
Question 38
5 out of 5 points
Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to
most recent) were: 95, 102, 101, 96, 95,
90 and 92. Develop a forecast for today
using a 2 day moving average.
Question 39
0 out of 5 points
Robert wants to know if there is a relation between money
spent on gambling and winnings.
What is the coefficient of determination? Note: please report your answer with 2 places after
the decimal point.
Question 40
5 out of 5 points
The following data summarizes the historical demand for a
product
Month
Actual Demand
March
20
April
25
May
40
June
35
July
30
August
45
If the forecasted demand for June, July and August is 32, 38
and 42, respectively, what is MAPD? Write your answer in decimal form and not
in percentages. For example, 15% should be written as 0.15. Use three
significant digits after the decimal.
